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2 months back at trading (update) and some new questions

Hi all, I posted a thread back a few months ago when I started getting seriously back into trading after 20 years away. I thought I'd post an update with some notes on how I'm progressing. I like to type, so settle in. Maybe it'll help new traders who are exactly where I was 2 months ago, I dunno. Or maybe you'll wonder why you spent 3 minutes reading this. Risk/reward, yo.
I'm trading 5k on TastyWorks. I'm a newcomer to theta positive strategies and have done about two thirds of my overall trades in this style. However, most of my experience in trading in the past has been intraday timeframe oriented chart reading and momentum stuff. I learned almost everything "new" that I'm doing from TastyTrade, /options, /thetagang, and Option Alpha. I've enjoyed the material coming from esinvests YouTube channel quite a bit as well. The theta gang type strategies I've done have been almost entirely around binary event IV contraction (mostly earnings, but not always) and in most cases, capped to about $250 in risk per position.
The raw numbers:
Net PnL : +247
Commissions paid: -155
Fees: -42
Right away what jumps out is something that was indicated by realdeal43 and PapaCharlie9 in my previous thread. This is a tough, grindy way to trade a small account. It reminds me a little bit of when I was rising through the stakes in online poker, playing $2/4 limit holdem. Even if you're a profitable player in that game, beating the rake over the long term is very, very hard. Here, over 3 months of trading a conservative style with mostly defined risk strategies, my commissions are roughly equal to my net PnL. That is just insane, and I don't even think I've been overtrading.
55 trades total, win rate of 60%
  • 33 purely directional trades - 57.5% win
  • 18 long call or long put positions, +692, 55% win
  • 15 call or put verticals, -121, 60% win
22 neutral / other trades
  • 13 iron condors, +345, 77% win rate
  • 7 strangles, -163, 71% win rate
  • 1 straddle, -310, 0% win rate
  • 1 butterfly, -83, 0% win rate
Biggest wins:
  • PTON call purchased and held through earnings, sold the morning of announcement +410
  • Trading the range on the daily chart in GLD from 158 up to 165, a mix of various calls +245
  • NKLA 30 put purchased before the close on the day it went north of 100, just a pure fade +215
Biggest losses:
  • EWZ 22/26 strangle that I held just way too long as it beat me up day after day from May 20-Jun 3, -316
  • ZM pre earnings vertical, fading another 2 SD move (the day it hit 200 for the first time). Was expecting a post-earnings selloff given the magnitude of the up move. Stock basically hasn't had a down tick since. Max loss -247
  • EWW 29 straddle, put on around the same time as the EWZ strangle. Rolled from Jun to Jul to no avail. Out at a -310 loss.
This is pretty much where I expected to be while learning a bunch of new trading techniques. And no, this is not a large sample size so I have no idea whether or not I can be profitable trading this way (yet). I am heartened by the fact that I seem to be hitting my earnings trades and selling quick spikes in IV (like weed cures Corona day). I'm disheartened that I've went against my principles several times, holding trades for longer than I originally intended, or letting losses mount, believing that I could roll or manage my way out of trouble.
I still feel like I am going against my nature to some degree. My trading in years past was scalping oriented and simple. I was taught that a good trade was right almost immediately. If it went against me, I'd cut it immediately and look for a better entry. This is absolutely nothing like that. A good trade may take weeks to develop. It's been really hard for me to sit through the troughs and it's been even harder to watch an okay profit get taken out by a big swing in delta. Part of me wonders if I am cut out for this style at all and if I shouldn't just take my 5k and start trading micro futures. But that's a different post...
I'll share a couple of my meager learnings:

  • Larger bid/ask spreads make it almost impossible to trade the higher priced names, even if you have a correct assumption. I have traded some bigger underlyings during this time like LULU and NVDA. They are just tough fills, both getting in and getting out. I almost want to say that you shouldn't even bother trading underlyings bigger than a 10 cent bid/ask spread with a small account.
  • Get an idea of the timeframe you're interested in holding before putting anything on. Have a plan for entering and exiting everything that goes beyond "I'll take this trade off at 50%". You can use TA, you can use a news catalyst, a binary event, just have something. Countless sources out there talk about trading a plan. It doesn't have to be the perfect plan, it just has to be "a" plan.
  • Undefined risk trades in tiny accounts need hard stops. Yes, some of the studies say that you'll do better without having fixed stop loss rules (50% of max loss, 100% of max loss) -- but what the studies don't say is the effect that it will have on you, mentally. I got pretty bent out of shape over how badly EWZ and EWW went against me -- much more than I expected. It made no sense, as I've lost way more on the turn of a card in .5 seconds and been unfazed. I was unprepared for the mental toll that it took waking up day after day, watching positions move further and further against me. Great time to be short calls during the mother of all rallies.
  • My initial plan for undefined risk trades in my account was that I would only do them in ETFs. Logic being that I'm just not going to wake up to an accounting scandal or a buyout and take a $1k loss on the chin. I later expanded my range into lower priced underlyings like BBBY, TLRY, and yes, AAL. But these ETFs can and do move (I learned the hard way) and can soak up a surprising amount of BP. It might be better to have 5 iron condors taking up $1000 of BP @ 200 each instead of 2 strangles @ 500 each.

My new questions :

  • My big wins felt like I simply leaned on my TA background or got lucky. My big losses, I sure felt like I earned those, through mistakes I've definitely since identified. The stuff in the middle, I'm just not sure. I'm up money, but it feels like I'm just spinning my wheels. My win rate is good, but I still struggle with expectations about how quickly a trade should progress. What is the next step of the process for a newer options trader? I've read some stuff on narrower spreads + more contracts vs. wider spreads and fewer contracts. Is there a number where I should just keep doing what I'm doing until I reach a specific # of occurrences? Should I even think about branching out into different strategies yet (ratio spreads, jade lizards, etc) or continue to work on these basics?
  • I still feel like I am super weak in delta management. In some cases I feel like I've taken a loss simply because I didn't know what the proper management techniques were. I understand the concept of rolling out in time for a credit, but I just don't think it's in my nature to hold trades for longer than a month, and even that is hard for me. At what delta is it appropriate to start thinking about hedging?
  • Every time I put on a credit spread for a 2-3 day move and am directionally correct, I often wish that I had just bought a naked option. I've caught several big moves this way in things like AAPL; most recently I bought the FB dip to the 50 day MA around 215 and took it off today at 225 (which was always my plan) -- it leads me to wonder if my expectations for credit spreads are completely out of line. I can't lie, it feels bad to catch a 10 point move and only make $40, haha. What is the ideal timeframe for a credit spread to be left on? Is it better to just buy premium with a stop loss and have a more profitable risk/reward equation for situations like the above where the only intent is to hold for a couple days?
  • Here's a random question -- other than when the BPR hit is too much (ie names over $50) for undefined risk, would you rather hold 1) a strangle for 10-14 days or 2) an iron condor for 25-30 days? So far my criteria for IC vs strangle has largely been driven by the risk profile and BPR and not so much profit potential in X number of days. If you're collecting the standard 1/3rd on the IC and taking the trade off at 50% (if you're lucky) , it seems like it takes about a month to get there, most of the time.
That's enough of this wall of text for now. If you made it this far, I salute you, because this shit was even longer than my last post.
submitted by bogglor to options

6

Team Building Guide - TM Drake

After not making a guide for the last TM, I'm back.
I want to start with a big shoutout to u/zl1814 for the update on the TM planner adding the stage gimmicks on the bosses.
I'm going to directly link here the images he posted there as boss gimmicks, since it is quite self explanatory, in case you prefer the visual guide instead of the written one.

Ambush: SobaMask

Graphic Guide
Stage 1: Pre-emptively lowers cooldowns of Slashers/Free Spirits by 10 turns.

Stage 2: SobaMask
- Pre-emptive: Puts up a 99t Delay Immunity, Burns your team for 5000 damage for 3 turns and puts up a 99t 1-PERFECT barrier.
Strategy: Ideally a 3t Burn remover. For that you have TM RR Law (2x), Legend Chopper (1.35x), RR Franosuke (1.35x), April's Fools Usohachi, TM Shanks (with double special 2 turns) and TM Nami (1.1x).

Stage 3: SobaMask
- Pre-emptive: Gains 99t Delay Immunity, changes all your orbs into BLOCK, gives 2t of ATK Down, puts up a 2t Threshold Reduction and blows away bottom right unit for 1t.
- Turn 3: Clears buffs, boosts his ATK by 2x for 99t and puts up a 99t 10% EOT HP cut.
- < 50% HP: Gives all BLOCK orbs, puts up a 3t DR effect.
- < 20% HP: 300x his ATK aka kills you.
Strategy: You can't afford getting him under 50% because you will probably die. That's why the best way to go is to bring him down either turn 1 or 2 (if you skip to get back the blown away unit).

Boosters that deal with 2t ATK Down:
TM RR Hawkins (1.75x), Legend Chopper (1.35x), RR Wano Carrot (1.35x), Raid Shanks/Mihawk, TM Weevil, April's Fools Robin, TM RR Momonosuke, FN Pudding, TM Nami (1.1x).
  • Probably the best F2P option here is Weevil, giving you the 2x ATK boost as well as getting rid of the debuff.
Boosters that deal with Damage Threshold:
TM RR Hawkins (1.75x), Coby/Helmeppo (1.35x), RR Usohachi (1.35x), TM Robin (1.35x), Raid Zoro, Colo Magellan, Colo Morley, FN Chiffon, April's Fools Usohachi, TM Boa (1.1x).
  • Obviously the best F2P options are either TM Robin or CobyMeppo, since they are 1.35x boosters.
Boosters that change all your BLOCK orbs to matching:
Legend SobaMask (1.5x), RR Wano Carrot (1.35x), Colo Kyoshiro (Changes all orbs to INT, 1.35x), TM Shanks, FN Shanks, Raid Arlong, Raid Ace, Raid Croc, TM Ace (captain FS),
  • The best F2P option is colo Kyoshiro, since he has a sailor that makes all INT orbs beneficial for slasher characters. Raid Croc is very good too, since you can set him in that bottom right unit and he can't be blown away.

RECOMMENDED TEAMS (WITH STAGE BREAKDOWN):
Teams with option A and B are meant to work like this: Use option A for as long as possible, then switch to option B.
Option 1A (38.11x), Option 1B (25.99x) --- Heavy P2W.
- Stage 2: Use Law. Position him Bottom Right so he gets blown away.
- Stage 3: Use everyone else and kill.

Option 2 (7.47x) --- Luffy/Zoro & SobaMask & Batch.
- Stage 2: Use Franky. Position him Bottom Right so he gets blown away.
- Stage 3: Use everyone else and kill.

Option 3A (6.16x), Option 3B (4.2x) --- 6+ Lucy F2P.
- Stage 2: Use Shanks twice, clear with 1 PERFECT and then GREATs.
- Stage 3: Use everyone else and kill.

Option 4 (5.31x) --- F2P
- Stage 2: Use Shanks twice, clear with 1 PERFECT and then GREATs.
- Stage 3: Use everyone else (Weevil 1st for the better ATK boost)

Final Boss: X-Drake

Graphic Guide
Stage 6: Hawkins
- Pre-emptive: Puts up a 99t Delay Immunity, Despairs both captains for 5t, gives Increased Dmg Taken for 2 turns.
Strategy: We need a 2t Despair remover (ideally you will have 3t resistance from sockets). The best F2P unit for this is O-tama (1.35x).

Stage 7: X-Drake
- Pre-emptive: Puts up a 99t Delay Immunity, Slot Binds and Paralyzes captains for 2t, changes all orbs to EMPTY.
- After 2 Turns (and every 2 turns after): Changes all orbs to EMPTY, slot binds sailors for 1 turn.
< 50% HP: Blows away bottom row.
< 20% HP: 300x his ATK aka kills you.
Strategy: This is clearly designed to use double Luffy/Zoro captains, since the switch of both of them would completely negate the slot bind. The best alternative for this is 6+ Lucy, since he is QCK (color advantage) and he has Slot Bind resistance on his LB. As for the paralysis, the best unit is Law/Chopper (color advantage and a 1.35x booster, if you don't have TM RR Kid).

Boosters that change all your EMPTY orbs to matching:
Legend SobaMask (1.5x), Colo Kyoshiro (Changes all orbs to INT, 1.35x), TM Shanks, Raid Croc, TM Ace (captain FS),
  • The best F2P option is colo Kyoshiro, since he has a sailor that makes all INT orbs beneficial for slasher characters. Raid Croc is very good too, since you can set him in that bottom right unit and he can't be blown away.

RECOMMENDED TEAMS (WITH STAGE BREAKDOWN):
Teams with option A and B are meant to work like this: Use option A for as long as possible, then switch to option B.
Option 1 (25.99x) --- Heavy P2W.
- Stage 6: Use Law.
- Stage 7: Use everyone else and kill.

Option 2 (6.73x) --- 6+ Lucy. Corazon support on Law/Chopper, 20th Anni Usopp support on Robin.
- Stage 6: Corazon will trigger and you can kill normally.
- Stage 7: Usopp will trigger and transform EMPTY orbs into matching. Use specials as you see fit and kill.

Option 3 (6.73x) --- F2P.
- Stage 6: Use O-Tama and kill.
- Stage 7: Use everyone else's special and kill.

MiniBoss 1: Holdem

Graphic Guide
Stage 7: Holdem
- Pre-emptive: Silences Mid and Bottom Row for 2t, gives 2t of ATK Down, changes all orbs to BLOCK, cuts your HP by 60%.
- After 2 turns: Gives a 5k dmg Burn for 5t and changes all orbs to BLOCK.
Strategy: We need a 2t reducer for Silence and ATK Down. The most simple unit for this task is Shanks/Mihawk, as they do both.
Example team (F2P), 4.78x Boosted. Use your specials on last stage. Use CobyMeppo's special prior to Ace's so you get the right ATK boost.

MiniBoss 2: Shutenmaru

Graphic Guide
Stage 7: Shutenmaru
- Pre-emptive: Gains 99t Delay Immunity, Binds Captains for 5t, special rewinds mid and bottom row for 1t.
- After 2 turns: Boosts his ATK by 2x and shuffles slots randomly.
- < 20% HP: Despairs for 7t and puts up a 3t Def Up (2000x)
Strategy: We need to some kind of special rewind mechanic and Bind reducer. The best units for this fight are either Kizuna Okiku or April's Fools Franky.
Example team (F2P), 3.36x to 3.78x Boosted. Use specials on last stage and kill. Use Franky on Kinemon, then Kinemon will rewind all your specials and give some matching orbs.
  • Note that as soon as you reach 1 M points, you can swap Drake as the (double) captain so you get 3.78x boost instead. Even before that, you can use FC Drakes if you have friends with him (maxed, of course).

MiniBoss 3: Kyoshiro

Graphic Guide
Stage 7: Kyoshiro
- Pre-emptive: Gains 99 turns of Delay Immunity, 3t Resilience, changes your orbs to Badly Matching.
- After 3 turns: Despairs for 5t and enrages (3x his ATK).
- <20% HP: Nullifies damage for 1t.

Strategy: We need someone that removes Resilience as well as some orb manipulation.
Example team (F2P), 3.36x Boosted. Use your specials on last stage and kill.

MiniBoss 4: Jack

Graphic Guide
Stage 7: Jack
- Pre-emptive: Puts up 99t of Full Immunity, 3t of Def Up, DR and Threshold and changes all orbs to BLOCK.
- After 3 turns: Paralyzes Captains for 1 turn and gives all BLOCK orbs.
- On Death: Revives to 20% HP and Paralyzes your crew for 2 turns.

Strategy: We need a way to remove all those buffs and debuffs. The best way to do so is using TM Robin as captain.
Example team (F2P), 3.78x Boosted. Use all your specials last stage (except one Robin). Use Hawkins after G4 and Smoothie/Oven so they don't shuffle away your matching orbs. Use other Robin on revive and kill. If you want to keep some orbs you can bring Kizuna Perospero as support.

Useful Extra Tools

TM Planner Link with my F2P teams (by u/zl1814)
TM Infographic (by u/PoisonousMarkers).
Helpful Units Graphic (by u/PoisonousMarkers).
JPN Thread on Stage Gimmicks

As always, my advice is to build first the teams for Ambush and Final Boss.
There's a lot of information on these guides, so probably there's something I missed or something I did wrong. If you find out, please let me know so I can fix it. Thanks in advance.
Last but not least, sharing your teams is encouraged, as well as commenting on further ideas or additions I could make. Good luck on your TMs!
submitted by SupaRedAndHot to OnePieceTC