Autonomous cars without human drivers will be allowed on California roads starting next year. by AdamCannon in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682 6 points 6 months ago
I would also add that it was not until about the year 2012 that AI researchers made the serendipitous discovery that GPUs, like those made by Nvidia for example, worked far, far more effectively at enabling CNN (convolutional neural networks) than CPUs to give us the incredible level of narrow AI we have today. No coincidence that all of these things are coming together at the same time. The secret sauce is that narrow AI.
So in essence, this form of SDV did not exist before the year 2012. A mere five years. And look how far it has progressed. Together with mapping, tracking and inter-vehicle electronic communication technology. Just wow!
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Pornhub is using machine learning to automatically tag its 5 million videos by izumi3682 in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 3 points 6 months ago
Just because adult entertainment is shifty and low-brow, doesn't mean they are not whip smart. The adult entertainment industry not only in media but in, shall we say companions, is leading in the development and construction of highly realistic and functional humanoid robots. Deep serious research is being done to explore the most realistic movement, the most realistic skin, the most realistic anatomy and physiology. The most realistic weight. One fine day in the not so distant future AI will be added to these things. Both "male" and "female". And I can think of tons of "off label" uses for these robots. The question is will we be able to distinguish between one of them and a real live human?
Sure they are a bit primitive today, but in 5 years? Look out! AI, robotics and automation will sweep over everything. Everything that humans do. Well now, that might take an additional ten years, but it is an unstoppable tsunami now.
"Humans Need Not Apply".
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How will we face being defeated by machines? by izumi3682 in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 6 months ago
TL;DR (but the article is scary fascinating!)
What will do when a computer takes our jobs? When we prefer its company to human company? When it makes art we love? How will it feel to be usurped?
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Autonomous cars without human drivers will be allowed on California roads starting next year. by AdamCannon in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682 22 points 6 months ago
Wow! This is happening so fast! In the year 2005 an SDV could not drive a straight road even 7 miles! In the many articles and discussions in just the last year or two in
futurology, I discerned the common sentiment has been maybe level 5 autonomous SDVs will be on US roads in 30 to 50 years. When I said, no they will be on the roads by the year 2020, I was roundly excoriated as an unrealistic "pie-in-the-sky" dreamer who did not understand the gritty reality of bringing such technology to life. Perhaps I don't know the nuts and bolts what is needed, but what I do understand is most people do not or are incapable of thinking in exponential terms.
But beware because this development is not about cars and transportation--it is about AI. And the AI gets better by the week. Permanently better. And it builds on its own self. So that rate of improvement acceleration accelerates because of that.
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Top 10 Fears of Americans in 2017 [image] by izumi3682 in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 6 months ago
AI, robotics and automation did not even make the list! No mention of "technological unemployment". This means one of two things. Either I'm wrong to be worried or the majority of US citizens are woefully unprepared or simply ignorant of what the (very near) future holds.
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VR’s future depends on you buying a dorky headset by izumi3682 in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 6 months ago
I like my Oculus Rift. But I don't use it a lot. When I do, it's wonderful, almost like magick.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/6g15ro/apple_seems_to_be_using_ar_as_a_gateway_drug_fodimokqz/ permalinksavecontextfull comments (6)editdelete
Reports Indicate That Sweden Will Stop Using Cash by 2023 by izumi3682 in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 6 months ago
So what if we do stop using physical money. You can certainly still be poor (without resources) nevertheless. I read an article just the other day that says since people now start carrying far less actual cash that panhandlers can't get any money on the street as easily as even a year or two ago. People are trying to come up with some kind of way to "electronically" give panhandlers money, but the very nature of panhandling tends to preclude a beggar from being able to make any use of such technology. A great many of these people are legitimate beggars for variety of reasons (like mental illness, severe substance addiction, felons, genuine intractable economic reasons). Panhandling is just one of the ways that they manage to survive on the street.
No, I think we need to get rid of the need for money. I'll admit it is still early and the concept of wealth is still valid. But when the unemployment reaches a critical tipping point due to technological advances in AI, automation and robotics, we shall need to come up with some way for humans to live safe and comfortable lives that have all their hierarchy of needs met so that all humans can "self-actualize". I think this problem will become noticeable in the next 5 years, worrisome in 10 years and intolerable in 15 years.
If the technology cannot produce such a thing, I suspect that the humans will take it upon themselves to equalize wealth. I can give you a good example of what that would be like. In the year 1860 nobody in the world had (state) government permitted (and approved) human slavery except a number of states in the Union (USA). The south did not want to give up slavery because it was simply essential to the way their economy worked. This was no new thing. A pattern that took about 150 years to establish was no easy thing to end. In fact future looking southerners saw great economic benefit in spreading slavery to as many states as possible and maybe even into Cuba and Central/South America. Granted, even though they did dream of such things, it was a bit of a pipe dream. The point was that they simply could not end slavery, because their economy would collapse. The south was profoundly embarrassed by this situation and even they called it "the peculiar institution" and attempted weak, even biblical, justifications that had a racial basis. Such racial justifications for slavery had not existed before in human history. I think it was even Jefferson who stated that slavery was like holding a wolf by the ears. You didn't like it, but you didn't dare let go either. It took an inevitable, horrific bloody war to wrest by overwhelming force the concept of slavery from southern fingers. And then, the aftermath.
I see this worsening "wealth inequality" business as something very similar. Those who hold the wealth simply can not give it up.
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Does Facebook Plan to Compete With Google's Artificial Intelligence? by izumi3682 in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 6 months ago
Awesome! Nothing like a little healthy market competition to see who can make the "best" AI.
Think about the world ten years ago. Now think about the world today. I don't know about you, but I am definitely starting to feel a 21st century vibe around here.
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China will open a $10 billion quantum computer center and others also investing in quantum computing by izumi3682 in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 3 points 6 months ago
Chinas progress on quantum computing is a state secret. We don't actually know how China is doing, but we have a hint by the fact that it was China that initiated the first quantum secure communication event in human history. Industry in the US states the US may achieve quantum supremacy by the year 2018. So I bet China is pretty close too. China certainly has the political will to do this. And it would certainly represent a massive strategic victory for China to be first.
Regardless of who develops functional quantum computers first, I think it would be one giant leap towards the "technological singularity". Humanity will not be the same after the advent of quantum computers. For better or worse, because you know we are going to mix all that up with AI too.
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Could Masayoshi Son get trillions in wealth funds mobilized for Singularity investments ? by izumi3682 in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 6 months ago
This is what they are talking about.
...they are investing in robotics, quantum computing, artificial intelligence, self driving cars.
In a speech last month in New York, Mr. Son declared that in 30 years, there would be as many sentient robots on Earth as humans and that those robots, which he called metal collar workers, would fundamentally change the labor market.
“Every industry that mankind ever defined and created, even agriculture, will be redefined,” Mr. Son said. “Because the tools that we created were inferior to mankind’s brain in the past. Now, the tools have become smarter than mankind ourselves.”
The industrial revolution replaced human (and horse and oxen) muscle. This AI revolution replaces the human mind. So logically... "Humans Need Not Apply" :P
I would also add that if ohh say about 90% of humanity were to, you know, die, the combination of AI and vast expanses of reclaimed nature would make a lovely place for the 1% to live in scientifically immortal paradise.
FACT: If 90% of humanity on Earth vanished today, the Earth would have the human population it had in the year 1800. The year after George Washington died.
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The Genre of Popular Science Articles on Treating Aging that Fail to Mention SENS Rejuvenation Research Programs by izumi3682 in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 6 months ago
I am very grateful for your insight!
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China’s AI Awakening - The West shouldn’t fear China’s artificial-intelligence revolution. It should copy it. by [deleted] in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682 1 point 6 months ago
Dang I forgot all about China until just now. And after all the stuff I wrote about it too! The important takeaway is this. We talk about AI in the West like we are the only ones who have it. A far larger population of humans in the world is working on AI in all of it's forms just as hard and as fast as the west is.
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Deception on the internet is nothing new, but it is getting worse by izumi3682 in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 3 points 6 months ago
We are developing technologies that are beyond belief. Within one year you could see the President of North Korea making a speech where he swears eternal love for the philosophy of Ayn Rand after having breathlessly read "Atlas Shrugged".
The video will look 100% real. The voice will sound 100% real. There will not be a hint of fakery. It will simply look like indisputable real life. That's the direction our fake news is going to go. It is simply one aspect of our ever improving narrow AI capabilities. What else shall we take as genuine fact when it is portrayed as such?
We are rapidly achieving the ability to simulate real life. CGI is constantly used in motion pictures that are not meant to seen as special effects. The CGI is meant to be viewed as a seamless part of reality. If you can pick it out as CGI the creators feel they have failed.
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The Genre of Popular Science Articles on Treating Aging that Fail to Mention SENS Rejuvenation Research Programs by izumi3682 in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 6 months ago
I have been aware of Aubrey De Grey and SENS since around the year 2011. To me, a layman, it seemed like the work of SENS was reasonable science. It had at that point only laid out basic groundwork of understanding. No actual true research to address each of the 7 facets of aging it had identified had been done yet to my knowledge.
My question is this. Is SENS pseudo-science? Or perhaps SENS is saying what everyone else (in science) already knows? I was under the impression that they had broken new ground, but I never hear of SENS or De Grey in reference to a Nobel Prize for example.
What SENS has done for me personally is take a concept (aging) that before the year 2011 I simply regarded as normal and inevitable and changed my way of thinking that it was in fact pathology. IS aging a pathology when it happens to creatures of such high sentience as humans? Is it OK for us to make "scientific immortality" a reasonable goal that we can achieve? If nothing else SENS, along with other aspects of futurism I became aware of in the year 2011 made me understand our universe and our part in it in a totally different way than I had before.
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The unsolved problems of physics by OliverSparrow in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682 1 point 6 months ago
In the year 1900 the scientists of the day felt that most of science had been solved--just a few details, said Lord Kelvin. But if you had told an ophthalmologist in the year 1900 that today in the year 2017 we use lasers to correct myopia and astigmatism, he would have said, "What is a "laser"?" Nobody seemed to realize Einstein had some new ideas in 5 more years or that the Wrights would achieve heavier than air motorized manned flight in 3 years. We continuously guess wrong about things. There are truly wondrous and unimaginable fundamental physical discoveries in our near future. Just think of the implications of observing gravitational waves now like it's no big deal anymore. And for how long did we think it was possibly impossible. In the year 1900 it was literally unimaginable.
I believe technology feeds on itself and in doing so reveals new insights and all kinds of opportunities for serendipity. AI does not develop in a vacuum, nor do genetic technologies such as CRISPR-Cas9 or materials science to include nanotechnology. Despite a great deal of unsolved fundamental physics problems, we are somehow managing to force a fully functional quantum computer into existence. AI feeds CRISPR-Cas9, nanotechnology feeds material science. Material science feeds the awesome "Cambrian Explosion" of drones, robotics and self driving vehicles. Incredible big data and processing power feeds simulations that continuously improve AI.
How we are managing to do all of this without solving fundamental physics problems is beyond me. I just watch it all unfold with unabashed wonder and amazement. But yeah, all of our problems are going to be solved. And the future to me appears to be a "funky Bali Hai".
https://youtu.be/hGgUwTvAYkY?t=1h28m19s permalinksavecontextfull comments (27)editdelete
Facebook entered a StarCraft competition for software bots, revealing its ambition to compete with Google in artificial intelligence. by bobcobble in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682 1 point 6 months ago
The winner in all of this is going to be AI, potentially AGI. AlphaGo is now working to enable its deep learning AI to not only play StarCraft 2, but to ultimately defeat any human player. Now the number of variables that are encountered within SC2 is an astronomical increase compared to the game of "Go" And "Go" is supremely difficult to master. Yet AlphaGo beat all human comers by earlier this year. Not the year 2050 as most experts believed.
As of the last update I read, the AlphaGo AI was not faring that well against even the lowest level tutorial AI, the AI that humans use to learn the basics of the game. Among other things the AlphaGo AI did not seem to grasp the "why" of mining and why mineral mines are important. But it will catch on. And fast too. I give it two years to beat any human on Earth. And the Facebook AI will catch up too, because that's the thing about narrow AI, it only rapidly gets more competent--it never gets less competent.
And finally I would like to add that once an AI can beat a human at the game of SC2 the resulting AI will be very close to achieving AGI capabilities, because of the way it has to process and "intuit" in the SC2 game. As of 2017 there is no such thing as AGI.
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Shake Shack Claims Automation Won’t Hurt Its Famed Hospitality by izumi3682 in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 6 months ago
...and a new $15 minimum wage for businesses with 11 or more employees will go into effect by the end of December 2018 in New York, drastically altering the economics of the fast-food industry.
Ohhhh. So that's what this is about. Lots of automation incoming...
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Americans Face a Rising Risk of Dying Alone by izumi3682 in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 6 months ago
In the short term, but in about 20 more years, there may not be dying at all. An incredible super-future of genetics, robotics, artificial intelligence and nanotechnology is sweeping towards us. I'd add things like overwhelmingly convincing VAR, quantum computing and practical nuclear fusion produced energy to that mix.
Personally I thrive on being alone. To me "hell is other people".
Yes the acronym for that is "GRAIN". ;)
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Calm down, Elon. Deep learning won't make AI generally intelligent by izumi3682 in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 4 points 6 months ago
There are three kinds of AI.
Narrow AI and/or machine learning is the kind that's on my smartphone and can translate languages instantly, even to the extent of mimicking the font and color of the text. "AlphaGo" can play "Go" and beat humans. It is probably impossible for this form of "AI' to be conscious or self-aware. This to me is not actually "intelligence", just lots of algorithms using good data, complex processing, predictive analysis and modeling to produce the best output for the desired goal. We see already that it can convincingly simulate human "creativity". Having said all that, it can be a massively powerful tool for humans to use. Perhaps to the detriment of other humans. Like truck drivers and radiologists.
Artificial General Intelligence is the kind of adaptive intelligence that biology uses to accomplish tasks when presented with a mental challenge or desired goal. It's as if the AlphaGo could suddenly learn how to cut hair like a professional barber, then learn how to fly or make a "pretty good" cake. (Or drive a truck or read x-rays) All from one intrinsic AI. Again this form of AI does not need to be conscious or self-aware to fully function. Things like empathy and personality would be easy to simulate. I bet it could unintentionally fool humans into thinking it was self-aware. There is no such thing as AGI yet. Yet. "AlphaGo" is learning how to play "StarCraft 2" with the goal of defeating all humans at this game. To do it will come very close to what we think of as AGI I'd say. Could be even more dangerous to humans than the narrow AI.
Emergent Intelligence is what the fellow in this article is referring to. If somehow we get say like quantum computers mixed up with machine learning and somehow get our narrow AI to become AGI and then somehow the product of all of this mucking about produces an intelligence that's "conscious and self aware", something we haven't totally nailed down the definition of our ownselves yet, then a new genuine sentience would exist. There is a lot of ifs for this to happen. Not going to happen in the short term of say like 20 years. But if it did--OMG! It would have all the benefits of narrow AI and AGI. It would leave human cognitive capabilities in the dust.
Yet, I am confident that we shall achieve all three with ease in less than 100 years. Simply because humans are super smart. We desire this as a goal. And now we have the extra muscle of incredibly massive "big data", ungodly fast processing speed, and ever improving algorithms to enable the actual AI portion of this problem. We are working to develop practical use quantum computers as fast as we can. Our muscles become more powerful by the week.
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'Lost chapel' of Westminster Palace revealed in new 3-D model by izumi3682 in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 6 months ago
Stunning. We shall use VR recreations to relive any period of human history, or history period for that matter. We shall walk among the halls and naves of all that we have built in our time on Earth. You can get a taste of this with "Google Earth VR". (Looks best on a Vive or a Rift. And by "best" I mean breathtakingly awesome.) See maps turn into travel.
Here. I helpfully took you straight to an example of what they are talking about. A VR visualization is worth a thousand words. ;)
https://www.virtualststephens.org.uk/sites/virtualststephens.org.uk/files/panoramas/1360s/tour.html (Click that little straight ahead arrow. And you shall move into a chamber where you can have full 360 degree movement and look at detail close up to boot.)
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2017: It’s the greatest time to be alive and simultaneously the worst by izumi3682 in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 13 points 6 months ago
No. Not by a long shot is this the worst time to be alive. The problem is that people have zero perspective, because people are for the most part history illiterate. We don't kill each other off by the tens of millions at a time any longer. During the American Civil War more than 4,000 Americans killed outright in three days in Gettysburg. During WWI , more than 11 million soldiers were killed in action in a roughly 4 year period. After WWI there was a thing called the "Spanish Flu" which killed more people in the world than WWI did! Death toll of "Spanish Influenza" pandemic of 1918-1920--Two years! More than 50 million!
I could go on. WWII, Soviet collectivization, China's Great Leap Forward, The Jim Crow era (1877-1950s). The Holocaust. Polio. The inhumanity of European colonialism, even limited US colonialism.
No we live in absolutely the best time ever. But there is a caveat. We must be very careful what we do with AI. 1.Who controls AI initially? 2.Can AI ultimately be controlled at all?
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The Reports Are In: AI and Robots Will Significantly Threaten Jobs in 5 Years by [deleted] in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682 4 points 6 months ago
Well, I would just say read the government article. It's certainly not boring.
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This Model Is Facing Threats Over Unshaven Legs, But She's Totally on Trend by izumi3682 in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 0 points 6 months ago
What do you mean?
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Elon Musk has a bizarre Twitter chat with 'Rick and Morty' by izumi3682 in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682[S] 0 points 6 months ago
This is where Mr Musk and I diverge. I don't think it matters one bit whether we are a simulation or not. As a simulation, by definition we can't physically impact what is simulating us. (Well maybe we might give our simulators' an interesting idea they hadn't thought of before. Perhaps that is our purpose. After all that is why we simulate stuff.)
What matters is what manner of simulations we make. And we are going to make some spanking excellent simulations of our own in the very near future. And we are also going to try our darndest to live within them. Just wait until you see what we call VR today evolves into! I prophesy we shall engineer ourselves to exist within virtual universes entirely in the next 100 years.
I attempted to watch the very first episode of "Rick and Morty" and I just couldn't get past the personalities of the two. So irritatingly annoying. And I was a staunch fan of "Ren and Stimpy" and "Powerpuff Girls" too. Well I'll try again...
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White paper: “autonomous vehicle corridor” replacing the I-5 freeway between Seattle and Vancouver - entire stretch of critical roadway linking two major cities across an international border would be given over to driverless cars by 2040, with no old-fashioned, human piloted, cars allowed. by mvea in
Futurology
[–]izumi3682 1 point 6 months ago
Pfft. Pot is going to be so legal, it will be as boring as cigarettes and alcohol are today. No problem drivng to the liquor store or the ABC if you live in weird VA like I do.